The 130th Amendment Bill proposes the removal of a Prime Minister, Chief Minister, or Minister if they remain jailed for 30 days, even in cases based only on allegations. The 131st Amendment Bill, considered the more politically significant proposal, seeks to connect the already-approved 33 percent Women's Reservation with the Delimitation process, leading to a major restructuring and possible increase in the number of Lok Sabha seats.
Since both proposals involve Constitutional amendments, the government requires a special two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha. The BJP-led NDA is now attempting to reshape political equations by creating divisions within Opposition alliances and gaining support from smaller parties.
The government had faced a setback in April when the Delimitation Bill was introduced but failed to clear the required numbers, falling short by 54 votes. Meanwhile, the broader One Nation, One Election project continues to be examined by parliamentary committees. However, the Monsoon Session has emerged as the immediate political battleground, with recent changes in Opposition relationships strengthening the NDA's confidence.
The NDA has received a boost from developments involving the Trinamool and DMK. Recently, 20 rebel MPs from Trinamool submitted a letter to Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla, expressing their intention to merge into a new group called Nationalist Citizens Party of India and officially join the BJP-led NDA.
In Tamil Nadu politics, the DMK, which holds 30 Parliament seats including 22 Lok Sabha seats and 8 Rajya Sabha seats, has moved away from the Congress and the INDIA bloc. The disagreement emerged after the Congress decided to support C Joseph Vijay in Tamil Nadu politics. The political distance between the two parties has created possibilities that the DMK could provide support to the NDA either directly or indirectly during the voting process.
In the Lok Sabha, the House currently has 540 Members. A two-thirds majority requires 360 votes, while the NDA currently has 292 Members, leaving it short by 68 votes.
Under a possible support scenario, the NDA's strength could rise from 292 to 312 if 20 Trinamool rebel MPs join the alliance. The number could increase further to 318 if six rebel Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs provide support. If 22 DMK MPs support the amendment due to their differences with Congress, the figure could reach 340. Support from eight NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) MPs could increase the total to 348.
NCP (SP) leader Supriya Sule has offered conditional support, stating that her party would back the bill only if the government provides a formal guarantee of a uniform 50 percent increase in seats for the Lok Sabha and all state assemblies.
Even after receiving support from these groups, the NDA would remain 12 votes short of the required 360-mark. To bridge the gap, the alliance may need support from smaller groups and independent Members, including YSRCP with four Members, JMM with three Members, VCK with two Members, RLP with one Member, Akali Dal with one Member, and other independent representatives.
Another possibility is an Opposition walkout or absence during voting. A Constitutional amendment requires a two-thirds majority of Members present and voting, meaning the required number changes if Members do not participate.
If Trinamool rebels, DMK Members, Shiv Sena (UBT) rebels, and NCP-SP Members remain absent instead of voting for the NDA, the number of voting Members would fall from 540 to 484. The two-thirds requirement would then reduce to 323 votes. With its current strength of 292 Members, the NDA would still need 31 additional votes.
The Rajya Sabha presents another major challenge. The Upper House has a total strength of 245, although it currently has 242 Members. The present two-thirds requirement stands at 162 votes, while the NDA has approximately 150 Members.
In one scenario, support from NCP-SP's one Member and eight DMK Members could take the NDA tally to 159. Later this month, three former Trinamool Members who resigned and joined the BJP are contesting Rajya Sabha bypolls. If they win, the NDA strength could rise to 162. However, with the House returning to its full strength of 245 Members, the two-thirds requirement would increase to 164 votes. The NDA would still require two additional votes and would need support from neutral parties such as YSRCP with seven Members, BJD with five Members, BRS with three Members, or BSP with one Member.
In another scenario involving absences, if nine Members from NCP(SP) and DMK stay away from voting, the Rajya Sabha strength would fall to 233 and the required two-thirds majority would become 156. The NDA, with 150 Members, would remain short by six votes.
If the three newly elected BJP Members from West Bengal are included, the House strength would return to 245. If nine Opposition Members remain absent, the voting strength would fall to 236, making the two-thirds requirement 158. In this situation, the NDA would have 153 Members and would still need five additional votes.
As the Monsoon Session approaches, BJP floor managers are preparing for an intense numbers exercise where every vote, political shift, defection, and absence could determine the outcome of these historic Constitutional Amendment Bills. The final result will depend on the alliance's ability to secure support across Parliament and manage changing political equations.
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